Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sailun Group Co., Ltd. (601058.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$191.31 - $225.39$211.23
Multi-Stage$147.88 - $162.27$154.94
Blended Fair Value$183.08
Current Price$14.38
Upside1,173.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.87%15.16%0.440.290.260.210.160.120.110.120.100.12
YoY Growth--50.42%12.82%20.70%29.99%33.50%8.41%-6.54%22.18%-15.57%10.43%
Dividend Yield--3.02%1.90%2.38%2.16%1.81%3.26%3.62%4.02%2.41%3.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,690.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,578.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,112.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)738.15461.35276.81
Cash Retained (M)2,112.452,112.452,112.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-738.15-461.35-276.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,374.301,651.111,835.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,256.543,256.543,256.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.510.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.510.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.910.991.05
WACC / Discount Rate-0.27%-0.27%-0.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$191.31$211.23$225.39
Upside / Downside1,230.38%1,368.89%1,467.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,690.773,930.674,186.174,458.274,748.055,056.685,208.38
Payout Ratio42.76%52.21%61.66%71.11%80.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,578.322,052.252,581.123,170.083,824.694,551.014,817.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.27%-0.27%-0.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,038.412,057.732,077.05
Year 2 PV (M)2,546.432,594.932,643.89
Year 3 PV (M)3,106.373,195.553,286.41
Year 4 PV (M)3,722.563,865.724,012.97
Year 5 PV (M)4,399.624,612.124,832.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)465,748.30488,244.12511,600.90
Equity Value (M)481,561.68504,570.16528,453.97
Shares Outstanding (M)3,256.543,256.543,256.54
Fair Value$147.88$154.94$162.27
Upside / Downside928.34%977.47%1,028.48%

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