DDM Analysis: 3808.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$271.58 - $884.70	$829.10
Multi-Stage	$117.49 - $128.52	$122.91
Blended Fair Value	$476.00
Current Price	$20.89
Upside	2,178.61%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.60%	48.21%	1.63	0.30	0.57	0.88	0.36	0.57	0.59	0.07	0.03	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	452.21%	-47.80%	-35.52%	143.38%	-36.22%	-3.71%	736.43%	174.85%	-46.30%	49.13%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.62%	2.16%	5.89%	8.98%	2.16%	3.81%	5.67%	0.96%	0.52%	1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	12,230.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,297.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,932.89

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,446.06	1,528.79	917.27
Cash Retained (M)	6,932.89	6,932.89	6,932.89
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,446.06	-1,528.79	-917.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4,486.83	5,404.10	6,015.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,749.28	2,749.28	2,749.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.63	1.97	2.19
LTM Dividend per Share	1.93	1.93	1.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.63	1.97	2.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.56	3.89	4.11
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$271.58	$829.10	$884.70
Upside / Downside	1,200.03%	3,868.87%	4,135.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	12,230.31	13,025.27	13,871.92	14,773.59	15,733.88	16,756.58	17,259.28
Payout Ratio	43.31%	52.65%	61.99%	71.33%	80.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,297.42	6,857.95	8,598.97	10,537.35	12,691.38	15,080.92	15,964.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	6,356.10	6,416.34	6,476.59
Year 2 PV (M)	7,386.50	7,527.19	7,669.21
Year 3 PV (M)	8,389.19	8,630.01	8,875.40
Year 4 PV (M)	9,364.70	9,724.84	10,095.27
Year 5 PV (M)	10,313.57	10,811.72	11,328.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	281,211.31	294,793.93	308,896.38
Equity Value (M)	323,021.36	337,904.03	353,341.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,749.28	2,749.28	2,749.28
Fair Value	$117.49	$122.91	$128.52
Upside / Downside	462.44%	488.35%	515.23%

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Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited (3808.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener