DDM Analysis: 2869.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.23 - $99.73	$42.78
Multi-Stage	$10.86 - $11.89	$11.37
Blended Fair Value	$27.07
Current Price	$4.00
Upside	576.79%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.52%	17.50%	0.14	0.09	0.17	0.17	0.07	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	52.03%	-47.48%	0.15%	145.87%	24.03%	32.28%	34.45%	356.40%	-91.75%	207.25%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.80%	3.41%	3.75%	2.92%	0.86%	0.74%	0.81%	0.62%	0.29%	4.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,587.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	285.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,302.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	317.57	198.48	119.09
Cash Retained (M)	1,302.74	1,302.74	1,302.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-317.57	-198.48	-119.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)	985.17	1,104.26	1,183.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,166.48	3,166.48	3,166.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.31	0.35	0.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.31	0.35	0.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.40	0.44	0.46
WACC / Discount Rate	7.59%	7.59%	7.59%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$20.23	$42.78	$99.73
Upside / Downside	405.67%	969.41%	2,393.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,587.85	1,691.06	1,800.98	1,918.05	2,042.72	2,175.49	2,240.76
Payout Ratio	17.96%	32.36%	46.77%	61.18%	75.59%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	285.12	547.31	842.38	1,173.51	1,544.12	1,957.95	2,072.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.59%	7.59%	7.59%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	503.91	508.69	513.46
Year 2 PV (M)	714.09	727.69	741.42
Year 3 PV (M)	915.90	942.19	968.99
Year 4 PV (M)	1,109.60	1,152.27	1,196.16
Year 5 PV (M)	1,295.41	1,357.98	1,422.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)	29,860.86	31,303.15	32,800.64
Equity Value (M)	34,399.77	35,991.97	37,643.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,166.48	3,166.48	3,166.48
Fair Value	$10.86	$11.37	$11.89
Upside / Downside	171.59%	184.16%	197.20%

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Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd. (2869.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener