Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Conch Venture Holdings Limited (0586.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.41 - $80.87$55.29
Multi-Stage$51.37 - $56.38$53.83
Blended Fair Value$54.56
Current Price$8.26
Upside560.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.72%3.35%0.280.380.630.610.610.500.440.270.270.33
YoY Growth---26.07%-38.53%3.08%0.26%20.77%13.24%63.69%0.86%-19.03%61.90%
Dividend Yield--4.54%6.55%4.18%2.19%2.13%1.84%2.42%1.96%2.43%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,950.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,165.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,785.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)790.17493.85296.31
Cash Retained (M)2,785.072,785.072,785.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-790.17-493.85-296.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,994.902,291.212,488.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,742.441,742.441,742.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.311.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.311.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.982.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate2.14%3.14%4.14%
Fair Value$39.41$55.29$80.87
Upside / Downside377.16%569.40%879.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,950.834,074.774,202.604,334.434,470.404,610.634,748.95
Payout Ratio29.51%41.61%53.70%65.80%77.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,165.771,695.332,256.972,852.173,482.504,149.574,392.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate2.14%3.14%4.14%
Year 1 PV (M)1,571.441,586.831,602.21
Year 2 PV (M)1,939.161,977.322,015.85
Year 3 PV (M)2,271.482,338.852,407.54
Year 4 PV (M)2,570.802,672.972,778.15
Year 5 PV (M)2,839.382,981.133,128.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)78,323.2482,233.2886,297.95
Equity Value (M)89,515.4993,790.3798,230.18
Shares Outstanding (M)1,742.441,742.441,742.44
Fair Value$51.37$53.83$56.38
Upside / Downside521.96%551.66%582.51%

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