DDM Analysis: 002879.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.30 - $11.77	$7.65
Multi-Stage	$4.08 - $4.45	$4.26
Blended Fair Value	$5.95
Current Price	$17.79
Upside	-66.53%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.39%	14.30%	0.24	0.15	0.21	0.21	0.19	0.20	0.11	0.07	0.11	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	65.31%	-30.38%	0.66%	9.52%	-2.30%	86.67%	60.80%	-41.00%	101.77%	-14.08%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.47%	1.05%	1.30%	1.34%	1.30%	1.21%	0.59%	0.28%	0.60%	0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	52.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	38.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)	13.75

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.50	6.56	3.94
Cash Retained (M)	13.75	13.75	13.75
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.50	-6.56	-3.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.25	7.19	9.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	196.39	196.39	196.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.04	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.04	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.21	0.23	0.25
WACC / Discount Rate	9.76%	9.76%	9.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$5.30	$7.65	$11.77
Upside / Downside	-70.21%	-57.01%	-33.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	52.51	55.92	59.56	63.43	67.55	71.94	74.10
Payout Ratio	73.81%	77.05%	80.29%	83.52%	86.76%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	38.76	43.09	47.82	52.98	58.61	64.75	68.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.76%	9.76%	9.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	38.89	39.26	39.63
Year 2 PV (M)	38.95	39.69	40.44
Year 3 PV (M)	38.95	40.07	41.21
Year 4 PV (M)	38.89	40.39	41.92
Year 5 PV (M)	38.78	40.65	42.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)	607.42	636.76	667.22
Equity Value (M)	801.88	836.81	873.02
Shares Outstanding (M)	196.39	196.39	196.39
Fair Value	$4.08	$4.26	$4.45
Upside / Downside	-77.05%	-76.05%	-75.01%

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Chang Lan Electric Technology Co.,Ltd. (002879.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener