Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.,Ltd. (000630.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.38 - $19.13$7.61
Multi-Stage$2.87 - $3.13$3.00
Blended Fair Value$5.30
Current Price$5.36
Upside-1.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.45%5.09%0.130.110.150.090.070.090.090.050.060.10
YoY Growth--16.47%-23.30%68.61%32.71%-24.95%3.71%61.75%-16.75%-36.04%22.65%
Dividend Yield--3.87%2.87%4.62%2.37%2.49%4.45%3.12%2.01%2.00%3.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,849.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,703.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)369.84231.15138.69
Cash Retained (M)145.25145.25145.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-369.84-231.15-138.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)-224.59-85.906.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,025.7713,025.7713,025.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.38$7.61$19.13
Upside / Downside-18.35%42.02%256.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,849.191,969.392,097.402,233.732,378.932,533.562,609.56
Payout Ratio92.15%91.72%91.29%90.86%90.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,703.951,806.261,914.662,029.532,151.242,280.202,413.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,653.111,668.781,684.45
Year 2 PV (M)1,603.761,634.311,665.14
Year 3 PV (M)1,555.851,600.511,646.02
Year 4 PV (M)1,509.331,567.371,627.08
Year 5 PV (M)1,464.171,534.891,608.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,592.1631,021.4832,505.49
Equity Value (M)37,378.3939,027.3440,736.50
Shares Outstanding (M)13,025.7713,025.7713,025.77
Fair Value$2.87$3.00$3.13
Upside / Downside-46.46%-44.10%-41.65%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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