Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Dana Brata Luhur Tbk (TEBE.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$649.42 - $919.46$782.79
Multi-Stage$970.89 - $1,065.93$1,017.49
Blended Fair Value$900.14
Current Price$2,820.00
Upside-68.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%101.11147.2170.595.004.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---31.31%108.53%1,311.85%25.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--14.14%19.37%8.51%0.70%1.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127,730.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27,293.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)100,436.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25,546.0115,966.269,579.75
Cash Retained (M)100,436.80100,436.80100,436.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-25,546.01-15,966.26-9,579.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)74,890.7984,470.5490,857.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,285.001,285.001,285.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share58.2865.7470.71
LTM Dividend per Share21.2421.2421.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share58.2865.7470.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend79.5286.9891.95
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$649.42$782.79$919.46
Upside / Downside-76.97%-72.24%-67.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127,730.04126,452.74125,188.22123,936.33122,696.97121,470.00125,114.10
Payout Ratio21.37%35.09%48.82%62.55%76.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27,293.2444,377.7461,117.8277,518.6693,585.37109,323.00115,730.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)39,935.9240,343.4340,750.94
Year 2 PV (M)49,495.4050,510.6651,536.23
Year 3 PV (M)56,493.9258,241.0360,023.80
Year 4 PV (M)61,376.4763,920.2366,542.26
Year 5 PV (M)64,521.4267,881.2071,379.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)975,768.201,026,578.721,079,484.18
Equity Value (M)1,247,591.321,307,475.271,369,716.92
Shares Outstanding (M)1,285.001,285.001,285.00
Fair Value$970.89$1,017.49$1,065.93
Upside / Downside-65.57%-63.92%-62.20%

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