Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Honeywell International Inc. Common Stock Ex Distribution When Issued (HONIV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.53 - $111.50$92.77
Multi-Stage$117.53 - $128.79$123.06
Blended Fair Value$107.91
Current Price$193.93
Upside-44.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.51%6.75%4.494.424.214.064.013.783.513.282.962.67
YoY Growth--1.65%5.00%3.54%1.31%6.14%7.48%7.22%10.65%10.95%14.30%
Dividend Yield--2.31%2.28%2.17%2.09%2.07%1.95%1.81%1.69%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,129.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,955.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,174.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,225.80766.13459.68
Cash Retained (M)3,174.003,174.003,174.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,225.80-766.13-459.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,948.202,407.882,714.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)646.55646.55646.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.013.724.20
LTM Dividend per Share4.574.574.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.013.724.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.588.298.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-0.86%0.14%1.14%
Fair Value$75.53$92.77$111.50
Upside / Downside-61.05%-52.16%-42.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,129.006,137.826,146.656,155.506,164.366,173.236,358.42
Payout Ratio48.21%56.57%64.93%73.29%81.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,955.003,472.213,990.904,511.085,032.755,555.905,881.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-0.86%0.14%1.14%
Year 1 PV (M)3,150.873,182.653,214.43
Year 2 PV (M)3,286.403,353.033,420.33
Year 3 PV (M)3,370.973,474.003,579.12
Year 4 PV (M)3,412.743,552.533,696.57
Year 5 PV (M)3,418.843,594.773,777.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,350.9062,405.0665,583.68
Equity Value (M)75,990.7279,562.0583,272.00
Shares Outstanding (M)646.55646.55646.55
Fair Value$117.53$123.06$128.79
Upside / Downside-39.39%-36.55%-33.59%

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