Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Deere & Company (DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$534.54 - $1,996.08$897.29
Multi-Stage$340.89 - $372.47$356.39
Blended Fair Value$626.84
Current Price$461.63
Upside35.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.46%7.74%6.335.915.254.833.833.523.472.972.812.80
YoY Growth--7.17%12.47%8.68%26.25%8.79%1.38%17.03%5.47%0.35%-6.74%
Dividend Yield--1.37%1.22%1.32%1.15%1.02%1.20%2.19%1.90%1.66%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,027.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,720.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,307.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,005.40628.38377.03
Cash Retained (M)3,307.003,307.003,307.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,005.40-628.38-377.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,301.602,678.632,929.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)271.65271.65271.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.479.8610.79
LTM Dividend per Share6.336.336.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.479.8610.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.8016.1917.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$534.54$897.29$1,996.08
Upside / Downside15.79%94.37%332.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,027.005,353.765,701.756,072.366,467.076,887.437,094.05
Payout Ratio34.22%45.37%56.53%67.69%78.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,720.002,429.123,223.154,110.155,098.836,198.686,561.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,219.392,240.432,261.47
Year 2 PV (M)2,690.622,741.872,793.60
Year 3 PV (M)3,134.843,224.833,316.52
Year 4 PV (M)3,553.163,689.803,830.35
Year 5 PV (M)3,946.654,137.284,335.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)77,057.7380,779.6484,644.01
Equity Value (M)92,602.3996,813.85101,181.15
Shares Outstanding (M)271.65271.65271.65
Fair Value$340.89$356.39$372.47
Upside / Downside-26.16%-22.80%-19.31%

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