Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Caisse Régionale de Crédit Agricole Mutuel Nord de France Société coopérative (CNDF.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.09 - $85.72$71.34
Multi-Stage$102.97 - $113.34$108.05
Blended Fair Value$89.69
Current Price$14.54
Upside516.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.890.731.040.990.950.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--22.72%-30.49%5.20%4.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.13%5.76%6.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)309.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)265.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.9238.7023.22
Cash Retained (M)265.67265.67265.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.92-38.70-23.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)203.75226.97242.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.8741.8741.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.875.425.79
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.875.425.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.926.476.84
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$58.09$71.34$85.72
Upside / Downside299.54%390.63%489.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)309.60306.50303.44300.40297.40294.42303.26
Payout Ratio14.19%29.35%44.51%59.67%74.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.9289.96135.07179.26222.56264.98280.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)82.4783.3184.15
Year 2 PV (M)113.52115.84118.20
Year 3 PV (M)138.12142.39146.75
Year 4 PV (M)157.21163.72170.44
Year 5 PV (M)171.58180.52189.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,648.343,838.324,036.13
Equity Value (M)4,311.234,524.104,745.48
Shares Outstanding (M)41.8741.8741.87
Fair Value$102.97$108.05$113.34
Upside / Downside608.16%643.12%679.49%

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