Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co., Ltd. (002318.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$91.78 - $356.57$257.56
Multi-Stage$44.57 - $48.71$46.60
Blended Fair Value$152.08
Current Price$24.37
Upside524.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.09%22.84%0.510.440.400.380.270.270.130.050.020.07
YoY Growth--16.16%9.38%5.26%44.55%0.00%100.01%150.00%200.03%-75.00%7.89%
Dividend Yield--2.05%1.97%2.62%2.60%2.06%3.58%1.52%0.80%0.18%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,707.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)927.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)780.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)341.41213.38128.03
Cash Retained (M)780.03780.03780.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-341.41-213.38-128.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)438.62566.65652.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)952.10952.10952.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.600.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.600.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.571.66
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$91.78$257.56$356.57
Upside / Downside276.62%956.87%1,363.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,707.041,818.001,936.172,062.022,196.052,338.792,408.96
Payout Ratio54.31%61.44%68.58%75.72%82.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)927.011,117.051,327.881,561.401,819.672,104.912,228.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,032.731,042.521,052.31
Year 2 PV (M)1,134.991,156.611,178.43
Year 3 PV (M)1,233.851,269.271,305.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,329.401,380.531,433.11
Year 5 PV (M)1,421.721,490.391,561.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,277.6138,029.8339,849.11
Equity Value (M)42,430.3044,369.1546,380.01
Shares Outstanding (M)952.10952.10952.10
Fair Value$44.57$46.60$48.71
Upside / Downside82.87%91.23%99.89%

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