Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$256.14 - $471.10$344.81
Multi-Stage$422.49 - $464.30$442.99
Blended Fair Value$393.90
Current Price$96.00
Upside310.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%13.06%5.000.000.000.005.005.005.007.003.201.42
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-28.57%118.75%126.05%-3.41%
Dividend Yield--3.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.44%1.45%1.49%2.55%3.43%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,303.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,247.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,055.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,660.653,537.912,122.74
Cash Retained (M)20,055.7420,055.7420,055.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,660.65-3,537.91-2,122.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)14,395.0916,517.8417,933.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.0010.3211.21
LTM Dividend per Share5.155.155.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.0010.3211.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.1515.4816.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate0.87%1.87%2.87%
Fair Value$256.14$344.81$471.10
Upside / Downside166.82%259.17%390.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,303.2428,832.9729,372.6229,922.3730,482.4031,052.9231,984.51
Payout Ratio29.14%41.31%53.48%65.66%77.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,247.5011,911.4315,709.6119,645.8023,723.8327,947.6329,585.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate0.87%1.87%2.87%
Year 1 PV (M)11,080.4111,190.2511,300.10
Year 2 PV (M)13,594.0613,864.9314,138.47
Year 3 PV (M)15,814.1416,289.1416,773.56
Year 4 PV (M)17,764.4818,479.4619,215.82
Year 5 PV (M)19,467.2520,451.5221,475.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)598,267.75628,516.49659,976.55
Equity Value (M)675,988.09708,791.80742,879.72
Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
Fair Value$422.49$442.99$464.30
Upside / Downside340.10%361.45%383.65%

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