Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Athene Holding Ltd. 7.250% Fixe (ATHS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$150.42 - $234.81$189.32
Multi-Stage$349.69 - $385.59$367.28
Blended Fair Value$278.30
Current Price$25.56
Upside988.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%2.225.267.130.690.470.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---57.88%-26.20%931.21%48.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.80%20.80%28.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,203.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)453.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,750.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)640.60400.38240.23
Cash Retained (M)2,750.002,750.002,750.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-640.60-400.38-240.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,109.402,349.632,509.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)203.81203.81203.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.3511.5312.31
LTM Dividend per Share2.222.222.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.3511.5312.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.5713.7514.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$150.42$189.32$234.81
Upside / Downside488.52%640.69%818.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,203.003,170.973,139.263,107.873,076.793,046.023,137.40
Payout Ratio14.14%29.31%44.49%59.66%74.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)453.00929.551,396.521,854.072,302.322,741.422,902.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)866.52875.36884.20
Year 2 PV (M)1,213.541,238.431,263.58
Year 3 PV (M)1,501.881,548.321,595.72
Year 4 PV (M)1,738.511,810.571,884.84
Year 5 PV (M)1,929.712,030.192,134.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,017.5667,351.1170,822.09
Equity Value (M)71,267.7274,853.9878,585.24
Shares Outstanding (M)203.81203.81203.81
Fair Value$349.69$367.28$385.59
Upside / Downside1,268.09%1,336.94%1,408.57%

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