Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

National Petroleum Co., Ltd. (9937.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.85 - $46.61$36.10
Multi-Stage$67.93 - $74.67$71.23
Blended Fair Value$53.67
Current Price$61.80
Upside-13.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.98%5.76%2.102.102.102.312.002.002.002.001.401.20
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-8.70%15.00%0.00%-0.02%0.02%42.86%16.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.42%3.18%3.41%4.68%3.97%4.80%4.84%4.93%3.52%3.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)734.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)648.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)146.9791.8555.11
Cash Retained (M)85.8585.8585.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-146.97-91.85-55.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)-61.12-6.0130.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)308.35308.35308.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.020.10
LTM Dividend per Share2.102.102.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.020.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.912.092.20
WACC / Discount Rate5.76%5.76%5.76%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Fair Value$27.85$36.10$46.61
Upside / Downside-54.93%-41.59%-24.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)734.84734.69734.55734.41734.26734.12756.14
Payout Ratio88.32%88.65%88.99%89.33%89.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)648.99651.34653.68656.02658.37660.71699.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.76%5.76%5.76%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Year 1 PV (M)609.73615.89622.05
Year 2 PV (M)572.83584.46596.21
Year 3 PV (M)538.16554.63571.44
Year 4 PV (M)505.58526.32547.69
Year 5 PV (M)474.96499.44524.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,244.1019,184.5120,163.30
Equity Value (M)20,945.3421,965.2523,025.62
Shares Outstanding (M)308.35308.35308.35
Fair Value$67.93$71.23$74.67
Upside / Downside9.91%15.27%20.83%

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