Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hunan Fangsheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603998.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$113.16 - $133.32$124.94
Multi-Stage$31.29 - $34.28$32.76
Blended Fair Value$78.85
Current Price$11.97
Upside558.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.13%0.00%0.290.400.280.110.160.060.020.020.070.03
YoY Growth---25.75%41.01%164.16%-31.70%166.14%167.68%8.65%-69.12%119.23%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.06%3.54%2.30%1.54%2.97%0.88%0.30%0.21%0.40%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)154.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.0736.9222.15
Cash Retained (M)154.71154.71154.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.07-36.92-22.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.64117.79132.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)440.58440.58440.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$113.16$124.94$133.32
Upside / Downside845.38%943.81%1,013.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.36314.56335.01356.78379.97404.67416.81
Payout Ratio47.62%56.10%64.57%73.05%81.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.65176.46216.32260.62309.77364.20385.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)166.09167.67169.24
Year 2 PV (M)191.65195.30198.99
Year 3 PV (M)217.34223.58229.93
Year 4 PV (M)243.15252.50262.12
Year 5 PV (M)269.08282.08295.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,697.8713,311.1913,947.97
Equity Value (M)13,785.1914,432.3115,103.82
Shares Outstanding (M)440.58440.58440.58
Fair Value$31.29$32.76$34.28
Upside / Downside161.39%173.66%186.40%

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