Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.,Ltd (600449.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.77 - $5.30$4.53
Multi-Stage$9.55 - $10.54$10.03
Blended Fair Value$7.28
Current Price$13.17
Upside-44.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.76%-3.61%0.320.450.620.700.560.380.320.230.240.11
YoY Growth---29.35%-27.65%-11.88%25.20%46.41%18.84%38.46%-3.73%123.92%-76.36%
Dividend Yield--2.17%2.71%3.80%4.99%3.71%3.04%3.29%2.02%1.88%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)292.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)115.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)176.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.4036.5021.90
Cash Retained (M)176.28176.28176.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.40-36.50-21.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.87139.77154.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.90464.90464.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate-5.61%-4.61%-3.61%
Fair Value$3.77$4.53$5.30
Upside / Downside-71.36%-65.61%-59.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)292.02278.56265.73253.48241.80230.66237.58
Payout Ratio39.64%49.71%59.78%69.85%79.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)115.74138.47158.85177.07193.27207.59219.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate-5.61%-4.61%-3.61%
Year 1 PV (M)128.09129.45130.80
Year 2 PV (M)135.94138.83141.76
Year 3 PV (M)140.17144.67149.27
Year 4 PV (M)141.53147.62153.91
Year 5 PV (M)140.63148.24156.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,752.053,955.054,166.75
Equity Value (M)4,438.404,663.864,898.66
Shares Outstanding (M)464.90464.90464.90
Fair Value$9.55$10.03$10.54
Upside / Downside-27.51%-23.83%-19.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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