Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd. (600258.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$126.66 - $149.22$139.84
Multi-Stage$84.76 - $92.98$88.79
Blended Fair Value$114.32
Current Price$14.68
Upside678.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.19%21.84%0.560.380.390.460.160.210.210.230.300.13
YoY Growth--48.33%-4.68%-14.43%195.12%-26.78%2.07%-7.69%-24.19%126.33%70.60%
Dividend Yield--4.19%2.49%1.69%2.01%0.57%1.59%0.88%0.94%1.61%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)837.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)621.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)215.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)167.56104.7362.84
Cash Retained (M)215.95215.95215.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-167.56-104.73-62.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.38111.22153.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,116.601,116.601,116.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.69
WACC / Discount Rate2.81%2.81%2.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$126.66$139.84$149.22
Upside / Downside762.78%852.61%916.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)837.82892.28950.281,012.051,077.831,147.891,182.33
Payout Ratio74.23%77.38%80.54%83.69%86.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)621.88690.45765.31846.99936.051,033.101,093.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.81%2.81%2.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)665.30671.60677.91
Year 2 PV (M)710.57724.10737.76
Year 3 PV (M)757.75779.50801.67
Year 4 PV (M)806.92837.95869.87
Year 5 PV (M)858.14899.59942.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)90,844.1395,231.9499,787.68
Equity Value (M)94,642.8199,144.69103,817.52
Shares Outstanding (M)1,116.601,116.601,116.60
Fair Value$84.76$88.79$92.98
Upside / Downside477.38%504.85%533.35%

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