Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co.,Ltd. (600079.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.72 - $170.66$159.91
Multi-Stage$43.43 - $47.68$45.52
Blended Fair Value$102.71
Current Price$21.08
Upside387.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.44%16.58%0.780.360.380.410.430.600.630.350.290.26
YoY Growth--115.98%-4.12%-7.91%-6.25%-27.12%-5.28%82.12%20.60%11.23%53.73%
Dividend Yield--3.77%1.79%1.40%2.36%1.41%4.39%5.17%2.22%1.45%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,428.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)686.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)742.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)285.73178.58107.15
Cash Retained (M)742.55742.55742.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-285.73-178.58-107.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)456.83563.97635.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.851,632.851,632.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.350.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.350.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate4.92%4.92%4.92%
Growth Rate3.44%4.44%5.44%
Fair Value$48.72$159.91$170.66
Upside / Downside131.13%658.57%709.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,428.631,492.011,558.211,627.341,699.541,774.941,828.19
Payout Ratio48.02%56.42%64.81%73.21%81.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)686.07841.771,009.941,191.361,386.901,597.451,691.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.92%4.92%4.92%
Growth Rate3.44%4.44%5.44%
Year 1 PV (M)794.60802.28809.96
Year 2 PV (M)899.91917.39935.04
Year 3 PV (M)1,002.081,031.421,061.33
Year 4 PV (M)1,101.171,144.381,188.84
Year 5 PV (M)1,197.261,256.261,317.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,920.6169,169.3472,544.91
Equity Value (M)70,915.6274,321.0777,857.66
Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.851,632.851,632.85
Fair Value$43.43$45.52$47.68
Upside / Downside106.03%115.92%126.20%

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