Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shining Victory Motor Electronic Co., Ltd. (2248.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,468.83 - $1,732.79$1,622.83
Multi-Stage$941.32 - $1,039.81$989.58
Blended Fair Value$1,306.20
Current Price$47.85
Upside2,629.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.57%0.00%0.910.790.690.000.570.890.830.001.500.00
YoY Growth--14.96%14.64%0.00%-100.00%-35.48%7.45%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.38%2.23%2.41%0.00%2.56%2.36%1.70%0.00%2.77%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)400.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)327.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.1250.0830.05
Cash Retained (M)327.15327.15327.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.12-50.08-30.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)247.03277.07297.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.0243.0243.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.746.446.91
LTM Dividend per Share1.711.711.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.746.446.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.458.158.61
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate-1.43%-0.43%0.57%
Fair Value$1,468.83$1,622.83$1,732.79
Upside / Downside2,969.65%3,291.49%3,521.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)400.62398.91397.21395.52393.83392.15403.91
Payout Ratio18.34%32.67%47.00%61.34%75.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.47130.33186.71242.59298.00352.93373.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate-1.43%-0.43%0.57%
Year 1 PV (M)131.62132.95134.29
Year 2 PV (M)190.41194.29198.21
Year 3 PV (M)249.84257.52265.36
Year 4 PV (M)309.93322.70335.86
Year 5 PV (M)370.68389.87409.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,240.7841,272.0243,386.51
Equity Value (M)40,493.2642,569.3544,730.07
Shares Outstanding (M)43.0243.0243.02
Fair Value$941.32$989.58$1,039.81
Upside / Downside1,867.23%1,968.09%2,073.06%

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