Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangdong Haid Group Co., Limited (002311.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102.90 - $599.95$190.67
Multi-Stage$61.22 - $66.90$64.01
Blended Fair Value$127.34
Current Price$63.77
Upside99.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.81%13.37%0.680.710.450.490.460.430.340.340.280.21
YoY Growth---3.94%58.69%-8.99%6.78%7.79%24.50%0.55%23.51%33.98%6.01%
Dividend Yield--1.37%1.60%0.77%0.90%0.59%1.06%1.20%1.41%1.67%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,022.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,984.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,038.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,004.52627.82376.69
Cash Retained (M)3,038.153,038.153,038.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,004.52-627.82-376.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,033.632,410.322,661.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,664.911,664.911,664.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.221.451.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.221.451.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.412.642.79
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$102.90$190.67$599.95
Upside / Downside61.36%199.00%840.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,022.605,349.075,696.766,067.056,461.416,881.407,087.84
Payout Ratio39.51%49.61%59.71%69.80%79.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,984.452,653.593,401.324,235.055,162.806,193.266,556.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,434.532,457.612,480.69
Year 2 PV (M)2,862.942,917.472,972.52
Year 3 PV (M)3,270.443,364.323,459.98
Year 4 PV (M)3,657.753,798.423,943.10
Year 5 PV (M)4,025.604,220.034,421.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)85,670.0589,807.9494,104.21
Equity Value (M)101,921.30106,565.79111,382.40
Shares Outstanding (M)1,664.911,664.911,664.91
Fair Value$61.22$64.01$66.90
Upside / Downside-4.00%0.37%4.91%

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