Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (000999.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$317.03 - $373.52$350.04
Multi-Stage$88.25 - $96.66$92.37
Blended Fair Value$221.21
Current Price$28.09
Upside687.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.32%27.26%1.930.670.570.340.290.260.310.110.100.27
YoY Growth--186.78%17.40%69.68%17.87%10.26%-15.22%187.50%6.67%-63.24%56.92%
Dividend Yield--5.95%2.17%1.68%1.26%1.98%1.58%1.77%0.65%0.63%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,760.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,746.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,014.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)552.18345.11207.07
Cash Retained (M)1,014.231,014.231,014.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-552.18-345.11-207.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)462.05669.11807.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,469.991,469.991,469.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.460.55
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.460.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.501.641.74
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$317.03$350.04$373.52
Upside / Downside1,028.64%1,146.15%1,229.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,760.882,940.343,131.463,335.013,551.783,782.653,896.13
Payout Ratio63.26%68.61%73.96%79.31%84.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,746.662,017.412,315.992,644.853,006.693,404.383,603.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,898.911,916.901,934.90
Year 2 PV (M)2,051.882,090.972,130.42
Year 3 PV (M)2,205.602,268.912,333.43
Year 4 PV (M)2,360.052,450.812,544.17
Year 5 PV (M)2,515.242,636.732,762.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)118,693.21124,426.14130,378.48
Equity Value (M)129,724.90135,790.47142,084.26
Shares Outstanding (M)1,469.991,469.991,469.99
Fair Value$88.25$92.37$96.66
Upside / Downside214.16%228.85%244.10%

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