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Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.20 - $29.04$23.12
Multi-Stage$25.24 - $27.54$26.37
Blended Fair Value$24.75
Current Price$23.85
Upside3.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.41%3.71%1.671.621.571.531.481.411.401.341.281.22
YoY Growth--2.87%2.94%2.91%3.42%4.94%0.81%4.17%4.67%5.43%5.01%
Dividend Yield--6.58%5.84%3.81%3.00%4.08%4.55%3.44%4.04%3.95%4.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,821.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,706.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,964.201,227.63736.58
Cash Retained (M)115.00115.00115.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,964.20-1,227.63-736.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,849.20-1,112.63-621.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,708.255,708.255,708.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.32-0.19-0.11
LTM Dividend per Share1.701.701.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.32-0.19-0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.381.511.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Fair Value$18.20$23.12$29.04
Upside / Downside-23.68%-3.06%21.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,821.0010,057.8810,300.4710,548.9110,803.3511,063.9211,395.84
Payout Ratio98.83%97.06%95.30%93.53%91.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,706.009,762.509,816.089,866.579,913.789,957.5310,541.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Year 1 PV (M)8,862.468,949.859,037.25
Year 2 PV (M)8,089.568,249.898,411.78
Year 3 PV (M)7,381.537,602.057,826.92
Year 4 PV (M)6,733.067,002.597,280.13
Year 5 PV (M)6,139.296,448.016,769.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)106,893.49112,268.72117,858.04
Equity Value (M)144,099.40150,521.11157,183.15
Shares Outstanding (M)5,708.255,708.255,708.25
Fair Value$25.24$26.37$27.54
Upside / Downside5.85%10.56%15.46%

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