Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kindred Group plc (KIND-SDB.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.31 - $40.95$16.22
Multi-Stage$8.07 - $8.83$8.44
Blended Fair Value$12.33
Current Price$9.47
Upside30.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-10.04%14.21%0.340.340.340.000.520.580.330.250.220.14
YoY Growth--1.09%-1.74%0.00%-100.00%-10.43%77.90%30.74%15.63%50.16%58.67%
Dividend Yield--3.72%3.74%4.11%0.00%17.23%7.36%3.34%3.03%2.73%3.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.288.304.98
Cash Retained (M)29.6029.6029.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.28-8.30-4.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.3221.3024.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)216.98216.98216.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Fair Value$9.31$16.22$40.95
Upside / Downside-1.66%71.28%332.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.4069.6773.1176.7180.4984.4686.99
Payout Ratio55.42%62.34%69.25%76.17%83.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.8043.4350.6358.4366.8876.0180.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Year 1 PV (M)40.3340.7241.11
Year 2 PV (M)43.6644.5045.35
Year 3 PV (M)46.7948.1549.54
Year 4 PV (M)49.7351.6753.67
Year 5 PV (M)52.4955.0657.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,517.761,592.201,669.53
Equity Value (M)1,750.751,832.301,916.94
Shares Outstanding (M)216.98216.98216.98
Fair Value$8.07$8.44$8.83
Upside / Downside-14.80%-10.83%-6.71%

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