Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $510.46 - $2,221.13 | $1,229.31 |
| Multi-Stage | $252.86 - $276.97 | $264.69 |
| Blended Fair Value | $747.00 | |
| Current Price | $2,200.00 | |
| Upside | -66.05% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 26.48% | -0.85% | 4.63 | 3.22 | 1.95 | 0.70 | 0.98 | 1.43 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.18 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 43.75% | 64.64% | 181.17% | -29.00% | -31.49% | 78.39% | 5.23% | 327.26% | 24,142.50% | -99.99% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.52% | 0.86% | 0.63% | 0.25% | 0.74% | 1.48% | 1.04% | 0.85% | 0.21% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 607,771.30 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,722.50 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 605,048.80 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 121,554.26 | 75,971.41 | 45,582.85 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 605,048.80 | 605,048.80 | 605,048.80 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -121,554.26 | -75,971.41 | -45,582.85 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 483,494.54 | 529,077.39 | 559,465.95 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 54,418.50 | 54,418.50 | 54,418.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 8.88 | 9.72 | 10.28 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 8.88 | 9.72 | 10.28 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 8.93 | 9.77 | 10.33 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.35% | 7.35% | 7.35% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $510.46 | $1,229.31 | $2,221.13 |
| Upside / Downside | -76.80% | -44.12% | 0.96% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 607,771.30 | 647,276.43 | 689,349.40 | 734,157.11 | 781,877.32 | 832,699.35 | 857,680.33 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.45% | 18.36% | 36.27% | 54.18% | 72.09% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,722.50 | 118,829.33 | 250,018.54 | 397,760.30 | 563,652.15 | 749,429.41 | 793,354.31 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.35% | 7.35% | 7.35% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 109,657.44 | 110,696.85 | 111,736.26 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 212,912.50 | 216,967.89 | 221,061.53 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 312,582.64 | 321,555.77 | 330,698.99 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 408,760.64 | 424,480.43 | 440,649.31 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 501,537.16 | 525,761.59 | 550,913.15 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 12,214,842.00 | 12,804,823.44 | 13,417,384.85 |
| Equity Value (M) | 13,760,292.39 | 14,404,285.96 | 15,072,444.09 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 54,418.50 | 54,418.50 | 54,418.50 |
| Fair Value | $252.86 | $264.69 | $276.97 |
| Upside / Downside | -88.51% | -87.97% | -87.41% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | 6.75% | $1.70 | 98.83% |
| COG | Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation | 6.71% | $1.49 | 52.20% |
| VZ | Verizon Communications Inc. | 6.66% | $2.70 | 57.56% |
| AC | Associated Capital Group, Inc. | 6.63% | $2.21 | 86.94% |
| VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | 6.62% | $3.90 | 78.61% |
| SSTK | Shutterstock, Inc. | 6.61% | $1.24 | 75.34% |
| EPD | Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | 6.60% | $2.12 | 80.06% |
| SXC | SunCoke Energy, Inc. | 6.57% | $0.48 | 63.44% |
| DIN | Dine Brands Global, Inc. | 6.56% | $2.18 | 90.98% |
| CBL | CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. | 6.54% | $2.42 | 61.13% |
| CRI | Carter's, Inc. | 6.47% | $2.15 | 85.39% |
| KYN | Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund, Inc. | 6.47% | $0.80 | 35.36% |
| SMMCX | Western Asset Managed Municipals Fund Class C | 6.45% | $0.96 | 71.65% |
| HESM | Hess Midstream LP | 6.39% | $2.21 | 87.39% |
| WRB-PF | W.R. Berkley Corporation 5.10% | 6.38% | $1.27 | 26.69% |
| RMT | Royce Micro-Cap Trust, Inc. | 6.37% | $0.67 | 32.29% |
| PNF | PIMCO New York Municipal Income Fund | 6.30% | $0.48 | 54.92% |
| ENR | Energizer Holdings, Inc. | 6.29% | $1.25 | 36.44% |
| UPS | United Parcel Service, Inc. | 6.29% | $6.35 | 98.06% |
| NWBI | Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | 6.27% | $0.75 | 93.81% |
| UIHC | United Insurance Holdings Corp. | 6.27% | $0.48 | 5.99% |
| TROW | T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | 6.24% | $6.53 | 69.41% |
| JRSH | Jerash Holdings (US), Inc. | 6.20% | $0.19 | 0.52% |
| MUA | BlackRock MuniAssets Fund, Inc. | 6.14% | $0.66 | 73.39% |
| VKI | Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II | 6.11% | $0.56 | 76.68% |
| GL-PD | Globe Life Inc. 4.25% Junior Su | 6.10% | $1.03 | 7.35% |
| CLNY | Colony Capital, Inc. | 6.07% | $0.52 | 13.43% |
| OMF | OneMain Holdings, Inc. | 6.07% | $4.20 | 71.06% |
| VICI | VICI Properties Inc. | 6.07% | $1.71 | 65.54% |
| IMMR | Immersion Corporation | 6.06% | $0.39 | 14.22% |
| KRNY | Kearny Financial Corp. | 5.99% | $0.44 | 93.99% |
| DMF | BNY Mellon Municipal Income, Inc. | 5.97% | $0.41 | 29.64% |
| UNB | Union Bankshares, Inc. | 5.96% | $1.41 | 57.02% |
| ARTMX | Artisan Mid Cap Fund Inv Shs | 5.91% | $1.95 | 91.77% |
| SABA | Saba Capital Income & Opportunities Fund II | 5.87% | $0.49 | 24.55% |
| BRD | Beard Energy Transition Acquisition Corp. | 5.86% | $0.63 | 95.51% |
| ETRN | Equitrans Midstream Corporation | 5.81% | $0.72 | 69.91% |
| EHLDV | Euroholdings Ltd | 5.80% | $0.28 | 5.02% |
| REPX | Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 5.80% | $1.54 | 38.01% |
| AII | American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. | 5.79% | $1.17 | 26.25% |
| VRTS | Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. | 5.75% | $9.35 | 47.12% |
| CXH | MFS Investment Grade Municipal Trust | 5.74% | $0.46 | 80.40% |
| GES | Guess', Inc. | 5.72% | $0.96 | 61.52% |
| KRC | Kilroy Realty Corporation | 5.71% | $2.17 | 79.80% |
| WRB-PE | W. R. Berkley Corporation 5.70% SB DB 2058 | 5.68% | $1.27 | 26.69% |
| LEO | BNY Mellon Strategic Municipals, Inc. | 5.66% | $0.36 | 37.22% |
| WLYB | John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | 5.64% | $1.76 | 92.90% |
| KMPB | Kemper Corporation 5.875% Fixed | 5.60% | $1.31 | 32.45% |
| CBTX | CBTX, Inc. | 5.56% | $1.63 | 54.55% |
| 0HST.L | Campbell Soup Company | 5.53% | $1.55 | 80.10% |