Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Grafton Group plc (GFTU.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.37 - $21.23$16.95
Multi-Stage$27.57 - $30.28$28.90
Blended Fair Value$22.92
Current Price$10.22
Upside124.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.72%13.03%0.360.360.370.420.000.220.190.170.150.13
YoY Growth--0.86%-1.76%-13.02%0.00%-100.00%13.96%14.51%12.18%12.13%24.63%
Dividend Yield--3.78%3.95%4.64%3.42%0.00%2.52%2.98%2.08%2.71%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)264.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.9433.0919.85
Cash Retained (M)66.5566.5566.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.94-33.09-19.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.6133.4646.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)201.61201.61201.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.170.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.170.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.70%6.70%6.70%
Growth Rate-1.08%-0.08%0.92%
Fair Value$13.37$16.95$21.23
Upside / Downside30.79%65.83%107.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)264.68264.48264.28264.08263.88263.68271.59
Payout Ratio74.86%77.89%80.91%83.94%86.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.13205.99213.84221.67229.50237.31251.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.70%6.70%6.70%
Growth Rate-1.08%-0.08%0.92%
Year 1 PV (M)191.13193.06195.00
Year 2 PV (M)184.10187.84191.62
Year 3 PV (M)177.08182.50188.03
Year 4 PV (M)170.10177.08184.28
Year 5 PV (M)163.20171.62180.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,673.374,914.405,165.28
Equity Value (M)5,558.975,826.506,104.58
Shares Outstanding (M)201.61201.61201.61
Fair Value$27.57$28.90$30.28
Upside / Downside169.79%182.78%196.27%

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