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First Capital, Inc. (FCAP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.07 - $71.73$54.16
Multi-Stage$44.13 - $48.29$46.17
Blended Fair Value$50.16
Current Price$45.80
Upside9.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.26%4.95%1.131.091.051.050.970.960.930.860.840.73
YoY Growth--3.69%3.24%-0.06%8.20%1.43%3.48%7.56%2.34%15.03%5.33%
Dividend Yield--2.95%3.81%4.10%2.68%2.00%1.60%1.77%2.15%2.49%2.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.051.280.77
Cash Retained (M)7.347.347.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.05-1.28-0.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.296.066.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.353.353.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.581.811.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.581.811.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.452.682.84
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate2.95%3.95%4.95%
Fair Value$41.07$54.16$71.73
Upside / Downside-10.33%18.25%56.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10.2710.6811.1011.5411.9912.4712.84
Payout Ratio28.53%40.83%53.12%65.41%77.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.934.365.907.559.3211.2211.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate2.95%3.95%4.95%
Year 1 PV (M)3.964.004.03
Year 2 PV (M)4.864.955.05
Year 3 PV (M)5.655.815.98
Year 4 PV (M)6.336.586.83
Year 5 PV (M)6.927.267.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)120.07126.01132.19
Equity Value (M)147.77154.61161.71
Shares Outstanding (M)3.353.353.35
Fair Value$44.13$46.17$48.29
Upside / Downside-3.65%0.81%5.43%

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