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Dillards Capital Trust I CAP SECS 7.5% (DDT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$870.75 - $2,324.50$1,334.06
Multi-Stage$580.54 - $635.08$607.31
Blended Fair Value$970.68
Current Price$25.78
Upside3,665.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS104.68%44.58%26.3117.250.000.000.890.730.710.600.620.64
YoY Growth--52.52%0.00%0.00%-100.00%21.32%3.71%17.87%-3.71%-2.21%-3.46%
Dividend Yield--100.71%66.85%0.00%0.00%3.46%4.47%2.64%2.34%2.43%2.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)580.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)560.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.1672.6043.56
Cash Retained (M)560.73560.73560.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.16-72.60-43.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)444.57488.13517.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.7315.7315.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share28.2731.0432.89
LTM Dividend per Share1.281.281.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share28.2731.0432.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend29.5532.3234.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$870.75$1,334.06$2,324.50
Upside / Downside3,277.63%5,074.77%8,916.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)580.80618.55658.76701.58747.18795.75819.62
Payout Ratio3.46%20.76%38.07%55.38%72.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.07128.44250.81388.55543.13716.17758.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)116.64117.75118.85
Year 2 PV (M)206.85210.79214.77
Year 3 PV (M)291.02299.37307.88
Year 4 PV (M)369.43383.64398.26
Year 5 PV (M)442.39463.76485.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,702.628,074.668,460.94
Equity Value (M)9,128.969,549.989,986.65
Shares Outstanding (M)15.7315.7315.73
Fair Value$580.54$607.31$635.08
Upside / Downside2,151.89%2,255.75%2,363.46%

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