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Cielo S.A. (CIEL3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.47 - $6.38$5.41
Multi-Stage$9.79 - $10.76$10.27
Blended Fair Value$7.84
Current Price$5.65
Upside38.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-22.30%-3.29%0.440.360.220.080.631.560.820.510.530.74
YoY Growth--22.36%67.08%168.08%-87.21%-59.59%89.85%59.54%-3.02%-28.55%20.41%
Dividend Yield--8.13%8.15%8.01%2.67%17.82%20.97%5.81%3.30%3.37%4.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,826.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,334.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)492.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)365.23228.27136.96
Cash Retained (M)492.09492.09492.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-365.23-228.27-136.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.86263.82355.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,707.332,707.332,707.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate-3.93%-2.93%-1.93%
Fair Value$4.47$5.41$6.38
Upside / Downside-20.87%-4.29%12.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,826.161,772.671,720.741,670.331,621.391,573.891,621.11
Payout Ratio73.05%76.44%79.83%83.22%86.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,334.071,355.071,373.701,390.071,404.301,416.501,499.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate-3.93%-2.93%-1.93%
Year 1 PV (M)1,245.631,258.601,271.56
Year 2 PV (M)1,160.761,185.051,209.60
Year 3 PV (M)1,079.731,113.801,148.57
Year 4 PV (M)1,002.681,045.091,088.82
Year 5 PV (M)929.71979.121,030.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,095.2522,216.2523,384.41
Equity Value (M)26,513.7727,797.9029,133.56
Shares Outstanding (M)2,707.332,707.332,707.33
Fair Value$9.79$10.27$10.76
Upside / Downside73.33%81.73%90.46%

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