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Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (BA-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.98 - $25.39$20.26
Multi-Stage$30.42 - $33.36$31.86
Blended Fair Value$26.06
Current Price$12.20
Upside113.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS69.56%0.00%1.100.500.000.000.100.080.300.500.700.45
YoY Growth--120.21%13,468,478.57%-7.65%-100.00%23.42%-73.84%-40.00%-28.57%55.56%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.98%3.06%0.00%0.00%1.14%1.95%2.52%3.47%3.45%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,278.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,729.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)549.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)655.78409.86245.92
Cash Retained (M)549.84549.84549.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-655.78-409.86-245.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-105.94139.98303.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,100.002,100.002,100.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.070.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.301.301.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.070.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.251.371.44
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Fair Value$15.98$20.26$25.39
Upside / Downside30.99%66.11%108.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,278.893,289.603,300.353,311.133,321.943,332.793,432.78
Payout Ratio83.23%84.58%85.94%87.29%88.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,729.052,782.502,836.272,890.362,944.782,999.513,175.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Year 1 PV (M)2,572.382,598.272,624.17
Year 2 PV (M)2,424.072,473.132,522.68
Year 3 PV (M)2,283.752,353.432,424.50
Year 4 PV (M)2,151.042,238.982,329.59
Year 5 PV (M)2,025.562,129.602,237.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,422.5355,115.1057,917.19
Equity Value (M)63,879.3466,908.5270,056.01
Shares Outstanding (M)2,100.002,100.002,100.00
Fair Value$30.42$31.86$33.36
Upside / Downside149.33%161.16%173.44%

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