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Apartment Income REIT Corp. (AIRC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - ResidentialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.14 - $36.58$31.34
Multi-Stage$46.78 - $51.39$49.04
Blended Fair Value$40.19
Current Price$31.78
Upside26.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS1.58%6.42%1.801.881.832.071.661.671.591.471.321.08
YoY Growth---4.11%2.95%-11.60%24.72%-0.64%5.18%8.17%10.82%22.70%11.35%
Dividend Yield--5.68%5.26%3.42%4.84%4.37%4.40%4.18%3.86%3.49%2.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)639.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)264.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)375.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.9979.9948.00
Cash Retained (M)375.83375.83375.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.99-79.99-48.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)247.84295.83327.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.48147.48147.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.682.012.22
LTM Dividend per Share1.791.791.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.682.012.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.473.804.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-3.71%-2.71%-1.71%
Fair Value$26.14$31.34$36.58
Upside / Downside-17.74%-1.38%15.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)639.95622.63605.78589.38573.43557.91574.65
Payout Ratio41.27%51.02%60.76%70.51%80.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)264.12317.65368.09415.57460.21502.12531.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-3.71%-2.71%-1.71%
Year 1 PV (M)288.22291.21294.21
Year 2 PV (M)303.04309.36315.75
Year 3 PV (M)310.42320.19330.17
Year 4 PV (M)311.91325.07338.64
Year 5 PV (M)308.78325.15342.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,376.295,661.315,958.29
Equity Value (M)6,898.657,232.297,579.26
Shares Outstanding (M)147.48147.48147.48
Fair Value$46.78$49.04$51.39
Upside / Downside47.19%54.31%61.71%

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