Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CIG ShangHai Co., Ltd. (603083.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.80 - $206.39$121.67
Multi-Stage$24.43 - $26.73$25.56
Blended Fair Value$73.62
Current Price$127.80
Upside-42.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.03%24.17%0.320.210.180.110.150.160.100.010.000.01
YoY Growth--53.92%17.11%64.81%-26.75%-7.47%62.60%600.83%434.09%-81.46%-61.65%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.51%0.48%0.82%1.30%0.69%0.50%0.07%0.03%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)274.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)187.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.8534.2820.57
Cash Retained (M)187.31187.31187.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.85-34.28-20.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)132.46153.03166.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)264.25264.25264.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.580.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.580.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.80$121.67$206.39
Upside / Downside-61.81%-4.79%61.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)274.24292.06311.05331.26352.80375.73387.00
Payout Ratio31.70%43.36%55.02%66.68%78.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.93126.63171.13220.88276.38338.15357.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)116.91118.02119.13
Year 2 PV (M)145.87148.65151.46
Year 3 PV (M)173.83178.82183.91
Year 4 PV (M)200.82208.54216.48
Year 5 PV (M)226.85237.81249.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,591.475,861.546,141.95
Equity Value (M)6,455.766,753.387,062.11
Shares Outstanding (M)264.25264.25264.25
Fair Value$24.43$25.56$26.73
Upside / Downside-80.88%-80.00%-79.09%

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