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Zurich Insurance Group AG (0QP2.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$663.77 - $1,307.35$917.23
Multi-Stage$985.60 - $1,079.97$1,031.90
Blended Fair Value$974.56
Current Price$699.02
Upside39.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.08%3.46%28.8726.9324.4522.2221.4019.5820.9520.0819.2319.93
YoY Growth--7.20%10.14%10.03%3.86%9.30%-6.53%4.29%4.44%-3.52%-3.01%
Dividend Yield--4.16%5.04%5.11%4.49%5.01%5.49%6.30%6.11%7.22%8.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,853.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,665.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,188.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,170.60731.63438.98
Cash Retained (M)1,188.001,188.001,188.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,170.60-731.63-438.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.40456.38749.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)143.94143.94143.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.123.175.20
LTM Dividend per Share32.4132.4132.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.123.175.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend32.5335.5837.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate1.67%2.67%3.67%
Fair Value$663.77$917.23$1,307.35
Upside / Downside-5.04%31.22%87.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,853.006,009.436,170.056,334.956,504.276,678.116,878.45
Payout Ratio79.70%81.76%83.82%85.88%87.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,665.004,913.445,171.835,440.535,719.896,010.306,362.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate1.67%2.67%3.67%
Year 1 PV (M)4,561.974,606.844,651.71
Year 2 PV (M)4,458.394,546.524,635.52
Year 3 PV (M)4,354.534,484.294,616.59
Year 4 PV (M)4,250.644,420.364,595.10
Year 5 PV (M)4,146.964,354.954,571.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)120,098.95126,122.43132,385.21
Equity Value (M)141,871.45148,535.39155,455.33
Shares Outstanding (M)143.94143.94143.94
Fair Value$985.60$1,031.90$1,079.97
Upside / Downside41.00%47.62%54.50%

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