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Cincinnati Financial Corporation (0HYE.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$255.22 - $549.08$364.17
Multi-Stage$209.11 - $228.61$218.68
Blended Fair Value$291.43
Current Price$158.10
Upside84.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.66%5.83%3.112.882.692.512.382.262.132.541.942.32
YoY Growth--7.93%7.33%7.09%5.33%5.63%5.65%-16.00%30.72%-16.39%31.65%
Dividend Yield--2.11%2.36%2.40%1.85%2.31%2.99%2.47%3.42%2.69%3.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,122.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)517.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,605.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)424.40265.25159.15
Cash Retained (M)1,605.001,605.001,605.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-424.40-265.25-159.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,180.601,339.751,445.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)157.43157.43157.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.508.519.18
LTM Dividend per Share3.283.283.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.508.519.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.7811.7912.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate4.66%5.66%6.66%
Fair Value$255.22$364.17$549.08
Upside / Downside61.43%130.34%247.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,122.002,242.062,368.922,502.952,644.572,794.202,878.03
Payout Ratio24.36%37.49%50.62%63.75%76.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)517.00840.571,199.111,595.522,032.962,514.782,662.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate4.66%5.66%6.66%
Year 1 PV (M)763.31770.60777.90
Year 2 PV (M)988.801,007.781,026.95
Year 3 PV (M)1,194.751,229.331,264.56
Year 4 PV (M)1,382.381,435.981,491.12
Year 5 PV (M)1,552.831,628.451,706.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,036.9628,353.5629,720.96
Equity Value (M)32,919.0334,425.7035,988.47
Shares Outstanding (M)157.43157.43157.43
Fair Value$209.11$218.68$228.61
Upside / Downside32.26%38.32%44.60%

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