Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $4,258.88 - $5,990.54 | $5,118.43 |
| Multi-Stage | $11,986.83 - $13,233.24 | $12,597.34 |
| Blended Fair Value | $8,857.89 | |
| Current Price | $23,750.00 | |
| Upside | -62.70% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -22.42% | -3.92% | 406.93 | 824.71 | 1,833.67 | 1,154.23 | 1,197.29 | 1,447.62 | 1,512.65 | 661.26 | 237.35 | 384.95 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -50.66% | -55.02% | 58.87% | -3.60% | -17.29% | -4.30% | 128.75% | 178.61% | -38.34% | -36.59% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.92% | 3.10% | 4.67% | 2.81% | 2.95% | 4.63% | 3.45% | 1.91% | 0.66% | 1.27% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 20,838.95 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 10,804.87 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 10,034.09 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 4,167.79 | 2,604.87 | 1,562.92 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 10,034.09 | 10,034.09 | 10,034.09 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -4,167.79 | -2,604.87 | -1,562.92 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 5,866.30 | 7,429.22 | 8,471.17 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 29.56 | 29.56 | 29.56 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 198.49 | 251.37 | 286.62 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 365.59 | 365.59 | 365.59 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 198.49 | 251.37 | 286.62 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 564.07 | 616.95 | 652.21 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.54% | 6.54% | 6.54% |
| Growth Rate | -5.92% | -4.92% | -3.92% |
| Fair Value | $4,258.88 | $5,118.43 | $5,990.54 |
| Upside / Downside | -82.07% | -78.45% | -74.78% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 20,838.95 | 19,813.46 | 18,838.43 | 17,911.39 | 17,029.96 | 16,191.91 | 16,677.67 |
| Payout Ratio | 51.85% | 59.48% | 67.11% | 74.74% | 82.37% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 10,804.87 | 11,784.95 | 12,642.40 | 13,386.93 | 14,027.56 | 14,572.72 | 15,426.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.54% | 6.54% | 6.54% |
| Growth Rate | -5.92% | -4.92% | -3.92% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 10,945.25 | 11,061.59 | 11,177.93 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 10,904.99 | 11,138.05 | 11,373.57 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 10,724.44 | 11,070.07 | 11,423.05 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 10,436.95 | 10,887.83 | 11,353.16 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 10,070.02 | 10,616.71 | 11,186.88 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 301,189.00 | 317,540.17 | 334,593.91 |
| Equity Value (M) | 354,270.65 | 372,314.42 | 391,108.50 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 29.56 | 29.56 | 29.56 |
| Fair Value | $11,986.83 | $12,597.34 | $13,233.24 |
| Upside / Downside | -49.53% | -46.96% | -44.28% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | 6.75% | $1.70 | 98.83% |
| COG | Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation | 6.71% | $1.49 | 52.20% |
| VZ | Verizon Communications Inc. | 6.66% | $2.70 | 57.56% |
| AC | Associated Capital Group, Inc. | 6.63% | $2.21 | 86.94% |
| VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | 6.62% | $3.90 | 78.61% |
| SSTK | Shutterstock, Inc. | 6.61% | $1.24 | 75.34% |
| EPD | Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | 6.60% | $2.12 | 80.06% |
| SXC | SunCoke Energy, Inc. | 6.57% | $0.48 | 63.44% |
| DIN | Dine Brands Global, Inc. | 6.56% | $2.18 | 90.98% |
| CBL | CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. | 6.54% | $2.42 | 61.13% |
| CRI | Carter's, Inc. | 6.47% | $2.15 | 85.39% |
| KYN | Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund, Inc. | 6.47% | $0.80 | 35.36% |
| SMMCX | Western Asset Managed Municipals Fund Class C | 6.45% | $0.96 | 71.65% |
| HESM | Hess Midstream LP | 6.39% | $2.21 | 87.39% |
| WRB-PF | W.R. Berkley Corporation 5.10% | 6.38% | $1.27 | 26.69% |
| RMT | Royce Micro-Cap Trust, Inc. | 6.37% | $0.67 | 32.29% |
| PNF | PIMCO New York Municipal Income Fund | 6.30% | $0.48 | 54.92% |
| ENR | Energizer Holdings, Inc. | 6.29% | $1.25 | 36.44% |
| UPS | United Parcel Service, Inc. | 6.29% | $6.35 | 98.06% |
| NWBI | Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | 6.27% | $0.75 | 93.81% |
| UIHC | United Insurance Holdings Corp. | 6.27% | $0.48 | 5.99% |
| TROW | T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | 6.24% | $6.53 | 69.41% |
| JRSH | Jerash Holdings (US), Inc. | 6.20% | $0.19 | 0.52% |
| MUA | BlackRock MuniAssets Fund, Inc. | 6.14% | $0.66 | 73.39% |
| VKI | Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II | 6.11% | $0.56 | 76.68% |
| GL-PD | Globe Life Inc. 4.25% Junior Su | 6.10% | $1.03 | 7.35% |
| CLNY | Colony Capital, Inc. | 6.07% | $0.52 | 13.43% |
| OMF | OneMain Holdings, Inc. | 6.07% | $4.20 | 71.06% |
| VICI | VICI Properties Inc. | 6.07% | $1.71 | 65.54% |
| IMMR | Immersion Corporation | 6.06% | $0.39 | 14.22% |
| KRNY | Kearny Financial Corp. | 5.99% | $0.44 | 93.99% |
| DMF | BNY Mellon Municipal Income, Inc. | 5.97% | $0.41 | 29.64% |
| UNB | Union Bankshares, Inc. | 5.96% | $1.41 | 57.02% |
| ARTMX | Artisan Mid Cap Fund Inv Shs | 5.91% | $1.95 | 91.77% |
| SABA | Saba Capital Income & Opportunities Fund II | 5.87% | $0.49 | 24.55% |
| BRD | Beard Energy Transition Acquisition Corp. | 5.86% | $0.63 | 95.51% |
| ETRN | Equitrans Midstream Corporation | 5.81% | $0.72 | 69.91% |
| EHLDV | Euroholdings Ltd | 5.80% | $0.28 | 5.02% |
| REPX | Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 5.80% | $1.54 | 38.01% |
| AII | American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. | 5.79% | $1.17 | 26.25% |
| VRTS | Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. | 5.75% | $9.35 | 47.12% |
| CXH | MFS Investment Grade Municipal Trust | 5.74% | $0.46 | 80.40% |
| GES | Guess', Inc. | 5.72% | $0.96 | 61.52% |
| KRC | Kilroy Realty Corporation | 5.71% | $2.17 | 79.80% |
| WRB-PE | W. R. Berkley Corporation 5.70% SB DB 2058 | 5.68% | $1.27 | 26.69% |
| LEO | BNY Mellon Strategic Municipals, Inc. | 5.66% | $0.36 | 37.22% |
| WLYB | John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | 5.64% | $1.76 | 92.90% |
| KMPB | Kemper Corporation 5.875% Fixed | 5.60% | $1.31 | 32.45% |
| CBTX | CBTX, Inc. | 5.56% | $1.63 | 54.55% |
| 0HST.L | Campbell Soup Company | 5.53% | $1.55 | 80.10% |