Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $72,187.24 - $127,390.59 | $95,598.59 |
| Multi-Stage | $129,327.42 - $142,240.08 | $135,658.94 |
| Blended Fair Value | $115,628.76 | |
| Current Price | $44,450.00 | |
| Upside | 160.13% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -7.95% | 2.32% | 1,003.39 | 3,010.17 | 4,013.57 | 1,806.10 | 752.54 | 1,518.48 | 1,721.37 | 1,240.95 | 623.06 | 1,055.67 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -66.67% | -25.00% | 122.22% | 140.00% | -50.44% | -11.79% | 38.71% | 99.17% | -40.98% | 32.33% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.51% | 6.86% | 1.83% | 1.03% | 0.95% | 3.34% | 3.00% | 1.66% | 0.75% | 1.63% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 11,706.40 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,707.59 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 8,998.81 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,341.28 | 1,463.30 | 877.98 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 8,998.81 | 8,998.81 | 8,998.81 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,341.28 | -1,463.30 | -877.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 6,657.53 | 7,535.51 | 8,120.83 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 2.16 | 2.16 | 2.16 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 3,083.97 | 3,490.68 | 3,761.82 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1,254.24 | 1,254.24 | 1,254.24 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 3,083.97 | 3,490.68 | 3,761.82 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4,338.21 | 4,744.92 | 5,016.06 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.35% | 6.35% | 6.35% |
| Growth Rate | 0.32% | 1.32% | 2.32% |
| Fair Value | $72,187.24 | $95,598.59 | $127,390.59 |
| Upside / Downside | 62.40% | 115.07% | 186.59% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 11,706.40 | 11,860.90 | 12,017.43 | 12,176.04 | 12,336.74 | 12,499.56 | 12,874.55 |
| Payout Ratio | 23.13% | 36.50% | 49.88% | 63.25% | 76.63% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,707.59 | 4,329.62 | 5,993.99 | 7,701.55 | 9,453.13 | 11,249.60 | 11,908.95 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.35% | 6.35% | 6.35% |
| Growth Rate | 0.32% | 1.32% | 2.32% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,030.97 | 4,071.16 | 4,111.34 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,195.61 | 5,299.71 | 5,404.84 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 6,215.25 | 6,402.97 | 6,594.44 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 7,102.59 | 7,390.05 | 7,686.15 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 7,869.34 | 8,269.45 | 8,685.67 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 248,771.80 | 261,420.41 | 274,578.34 |
| Equity Value (M) | 279,185.57 | 292,853.74 | 307,060.78 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 2.16 | 2.16 | 2.16 |
| Fair Value | $129,327.42 | $135,658.94 | $142,240.08 |
| Upside / Downside | 190.95% | 205.19% | 220.00% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | 6.75% | $1.70 | 98.83% |
| COG | Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation | 6.71% | $1.49 | 52.20% |
| VZ | Verizon Communications Inc. | 6.66% | $2.70 | 57.56% |
| AC | Associated Capital Group, Inc. | 6.63% | $2.21 | 86.94% |
| VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | 6.62% | $3.90 | 78.61% |
| SSTK | Shutterstock, Inc. | 6.61% | $1.24 | 75.34% |
| EPD | Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | 6.60% | $2.12 | 80.06% |
| SXC | SunCoke Energy, Inc. | 6.57% | $0.48 | 63.44% |
| DIN | Dine Brands Global, Inc. | 6.56% | $2.18 | 90.98% |
| CBL | CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. | 6.54% | $2.42 | 61.13% |
| CRI | Carter's, Inc. | 6.47% | $2.15 | 85.39% |
| KYN | Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund, Inc. | 6.47% | $0.80 | 35.36% |
| SMMCX | Western Asset Managed Municipals Fund Class C | 6.45% | $0.96 | 71.65% |
| HESM | Hess Midstream LP | 6.39% | $2.21 | 87.39% |
| WRB-PF | W.R. Berkley Corporation 5.10% | 6.38% | $1.27 | 26.69% |
| RMT | Royce Micro-Cap Trust, Inc. | 6.37% | $0.67 | 32.29% |
| PNF | PIMCO New York Municipal Income Fund | 6.30% | $0.48 | 54.92% |
| ENR | Energizer Holdings, Inc. | 6.29% | $1.25 | 36.44% |
| UPS | United Parcel Service, Inc. | 6.29% | $6.35 | 98.06% |
| NWBI | Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | 6.27% | $0.75 | 93.81% |
| UIHC | United Insurance Holdings Corp. | 6.27% | $0.48 | 5.99% |
| TROW | T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | 6.24% | $6.53 | 69.41% |
| JRSH | Jerash Holdings (US), Inc. | 6.20% | $0.19 | 0.52% |
| MUA | BlackRock MuniAssets Fund, Inc. | 6.14% | $0.66 | 73.39% |
| VKI | Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II | 6.11% | $0.56 | 76.68% |
| GL-PD | Globe Life Inc. 4.25% Junior Su | 6.10% | $1.03 | 7.35% |
| CLNY | Colony Capital, Inc. | 6.07% | $0.52 | 13.43% |
| OMF | OneMain Holdings, Inc. | 6.07% | $4.20 | 71.06% |
| VICI | VICI Properties Inc. | 6.07% | $1.71 | 65.54% |
| IMMR | Immersion Corporation | 6.06% | $0.39 | 14.22% |
| KRNY | Kearny Financial Corp. | 5.99% | $0.44 | 93.99% |
| DMF | BNY Mellon Municipal Income, Inc. | 5.97% | $0.41 | 29.64% |
| UNB | Union Bankshares, Inc. | 5.96% | $1.41 | 57.02% |
| ARTMX | Artisan Mid Cap Fund Inv Shs | 5.91% | $1.95 | 91.77% |
| SABA | Saba Capital Income & Opportunities Fund II | 5.87% | $0.49 | 24.55% |
| BRD | Beard Energy Transition Acquisition Corp. | 5.86% | $0.63 | 95.51% |
| ETRN | Equitrans Midstream Corporation | 5.81% | $0.72 | 69.91% |
| EHLDV | Euroholdings Ltd | 5.80% | $0.28 | 5.02% |
| REPX | Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 5.80% | $1.54 | 38.01% |
| AII | American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. | 5.79% | $1.17 | 26.25% |
| VRTS | Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. | 5.75% | $9.35 | 47.12% |
| CXH | MFS Investment Grade Municipal Trust | 5.74% | $0.46 | 80.40% |
| GES | Guess', Inc. | 5.72% | $0.96 | 61.52% |
| KRC | Kilroy Realty Corporation | 5.71% | $2.17 | 79.80% |
| WRB-PE | W. R. Berkley Corporation 5.70% SB DB 2058 | 5.68% | $1.27 | 26.69% |
| LEO | BNY Mellon Strategic Municipals, Inc. | 5.66% | $0.36 | 37.22% |
| WLYB | John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | 5.64% | $1.76 | 92.90% |
| KMPB | Kemper Corporation 5.875% Fixed | 5.60% | $1.31 | 32.45% |
| CBTX | CBTX, Inc. | 5.56% | $1.63 | 54.55% |
| 0HST.L | Campbell Soup Company | 5.53% | $1.55 | 80.10% |