Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Truelove Vogue Co., Ltd. (003041.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.14 - $24.97$20.24
Multi-Stage$37.12 - $40.90$38.97
Blended Fair Value$29.61
Current Price$23.93
Upside23.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720142013
DPS126.13%8.29%0.520.330.150.000.000.010.030.020.170.21
YoY Growth--57.20%120.74%1,011,277.58%-98.18%-90.76%-71.44%31.57%-85.89%-20.41%-11.09%
Dividend Yield--1.86%2.53%0.92%0.00%0.00%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)249.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)180.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.0031.2518.75
Cash Retained (M)180.14180.14180.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.00-31.25-18.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)130.15148.89161.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)144.01144.01144.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.901.031.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.901.031.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.09%-1.09%-0.09%
Fair Value$16.14$20.24$24.97
Upside / Downside-32.55%-15.43%4.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)249.98247.26244.57241.91239.28236.68243.78
Payout Ratio27.94%40.35%52.76%65.17%77.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.8499.77129.04157.66185.65213.01225.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.09%-1.09%-0.09%
Year 1 PV (M)92.8793.8294.77
Year 2 PV (M)111.82114.12116.44
Year 3 PV (M)127.19131.13135.14
Year 4 PV (M)139.42145.20151.16
Year 5 PV (M)148.91156.67164.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,725.274,971.555,227.99
Equity Value (M)5,345.495,612.495,890.26
Shares Outstanding (M)144.01144.01144.01
Fair Value$37.12$38.97$40.90
Upside / Downside55.12%62.87%70.93%

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