Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yunnan Lincang Xinyuan Germanium Industry Co.,LTD (002428.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.76 - $5.94$2.89
Multi-Stage$1.23 - $1.34$1.28
Blended Fair Value$2.08
Current Price$28.90
Upside-92.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.94%-2.11%0.070.040.040.040.030.020.010.010.040.06
YoY Growth--81.84%5.72%-8.63%34.10%45.54%58.62%-10.05%-65.57%-29.85%-31.60%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.34%0.32%0.29%0.30%0.23%0.16%0.11%0.32%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.355.223.13
Cash Retained (M)1.241.241.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.35-5.22-3.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.11-3.98-1.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)649.21649.21649.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate8.58%8.58%8.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.76$2.89$5.94
Upside / Downside-93.89%-90.01%-79.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.7744.4847.3850.4653.7357.2358.94
Payout Ratio97.03%95.62%94.22%92.81%91.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.5342.5444.6446.8349.1251.5054.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.58%8.58%8.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38.8139.1839.54
Year 2 PV (M)37.1537.8638.58
Year 3 PV (M)35.5636.5837.62
Year 4 PV (M)34.0335.3436.69
Year 5 PV (M)32.5634.1335.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)618.04647.89678.88
Equity Value (M)796.15830.98867.08
Shares Outstanding (M)649.21649.21649.21
Fair Value$1.23$1.28$1.34
Upside / Downside-95.76%-95.57%-95.38%

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