Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Hepalink Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (002399.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.12 - $10.87$7.27
Multi-Stage$11.17 - $12.30$11.72
Blended Fair Value$9.50
Current Price$11.96
Upside-20.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.10%-3.98%0.110.100.030.150.150.080.040.210.320.16
YoY Growth--8.98%185.71%-76.67%-1.96%80.00%122.22%-82.00%-33.33%94.83%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.98%1.15%0.25%1.02%0.89%0.41%0.14%1.25%1.53%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)420.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)347.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.0452.5331.52
Cash Retained (M)347.13347.13347.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.04-52.53-31.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)263.09294.60315.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,467.301,467.301,467.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate5.10%5.10%5.10%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Fair Value$5.12$7.27$10.87
Upside / Downside-57.18%-39.18%-9.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)420.20426.94433.79440.75447.82455.00468.65
Payout Ratio17.39%31.91%46.43%60.96%75.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.08136.25201.43268.66338.00409.50433.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.10%5.10%5.10%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Year 1 PV (M)128.36129.63130.91
Year 2 PV (M)178.77182.34185.95
Year 3 PV (M)224.63231.39238.29
Year 4 PV (M)266.23276.98288.04
Year 5 PV (M)303.86319.27335.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,287.6116,062.6516,868.82
Equity Value (M)16,389.4517,202.2618,047.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1,467.301,467.301,467.30
Fair Value$11.17$11.72$12.30
Upside / Downside-6.61%-1.98%2.84%

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