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Weis Markets, Inc. (WMK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.71 - $107.20$77.98
Multi-Stage$57.16 - $62.50$59.78
Blended Fair Value$68.88
Current Price$72.84
Upside-5.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.86%1.26%1.391.391.331.281.271.271.241.231.231.23
YoY Growth--0.00%4.62%4.00%0.81%0.00%2.48%0.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.80%2.17%1.57%1.73%2.21%3.29%3.04%3.00%2.06%2.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.9812.497.49
Cash Retained (M)64.0764.0764.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.98-12.49-7.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.0851.5856.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.2226.2226.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.681.972.16
LTM Dividend per Share1.371.371.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.681.972.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.053.333.52
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate3.61%4.61%5.61%
Fair Value$57.71$77.98$107.20
Upside / Downside-20.77%7.06%47.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99.92104.52109.34114.37119.64125.16128.91
Payout Ratio35.88%46.70%57.53%68.35%79.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.8548.8162.9078.1894.73112.64119.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate3.61%4.61%5.61%
Year 1 PV (M)44.3244.7545.18
Year 2 PV (M)51.8652.8653.88
Year 3 PV (M)58.5260.2361.98
Year 4 PV (M)64.3966.9169.51
Year 5 PV (M)69.5272.9476.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,210.451,270.001,331.87
Equity Value (M)1,499.061,567.701,638.91
Shares Outstanding (M)26.2226.2226.22
Fair Value$57.16$59.78$62.50
Upside / Downside-21.52%-17.93%-14.20%

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