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Patterson Companies, Inc. (PDCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.29 - $25.90$20.66
Multi-Stage$21.89 - $23.93$22.89
Blended Fair Value$21.78
Current Price$30.93
Upside-29.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.23%1.39%1.101.141.130.841.131.121.111.081.020.92
YoY Growth---2.97%0.23%34.49%-25.15%0.98%0.27%3.43%5.86%10.81%-4.55%
Dividend Yield--4.19%3.49%3.65%2.52%4.50%5.69%4.68%2.55%2.06%1.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7617.3510.41
Cash Retained (M)46.3046.3046.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.76-17.35-10.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.5428.9535.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.1789.1789.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.320.40
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.320.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.251.361.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate1.34%2.34%3.34%
Fair Value$16.29$20.66$25.90
Upside / Downside-47.33%-33.20%-16.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.78142.02145.33148.73152.20155.75160.43
Payout Ratio66.64%71.31%75.98%80.66%85.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92.48101.27110.43119.96129.87140.18148.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate1.34%2.34%3.34%
Year 1 PV (M)91.9392.8493.75
Year 2 PV (M)91.0092.8194.63
Year 3 PV (M)89.7492.4295.16
Year 4 PV (M)88.2091.7395.37
Year 5 PV (M)86.4290.7795.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,504.751,580.481,659.22
Equity Value (M)1,952.052,041.062,133.43
Shares Outstanding (M)89.1789.1789.17
Fair Value$21.89$22.89$23.93
Upside / Downside-29.22%-25.99%-22.64%

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