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Adairs Limited (ADH.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.24 - $63.37$45.24
Multi-Stage$7.87 - $8.60$8.23
Blended Fair Value$26.73
Current Price$2.09
Upside1,179.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.28%0.00%0.110.040.150.160.230.070.130.090.090.05
YoY Growth--159.79%-72.26%-6.72%-27.61%205.79%-44.83%45.01%-0.01%100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.30%2.25%9.73%8.63%5.36%3.24%9.31%4.17%10.83%1.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.357.104.26
Cash Retained (M)29.4229.4229.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.35-7.10-4.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.0722.3225.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)178.17178.17178.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.24$45.24$63.37
Upside / Downside676.86%2,064.51%2,932.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.7760.4664.3968.5873.0477.7880.12
Payout Ratio48.18%56.54%64.91%73.27%81.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.3534.1941.7950.2559.6270.0074.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.6031.9032.20
Year 2 PV (M)35.7236.4037.09
Year 3 PV (M)39.7040.8442.00
Year 4 PV (M)43.5545.2246.94
Year 5 PV (M)47.2749.5551.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,203.841,261.991,322.36
Equity Value (M)1,401.671,465.891,532.51
Shares Outstanding (M)178.17178.17178.17
Fair Value$7.87$8.23$8.60
Upside / Downside276.42%293.67%311.56%

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