Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Cai Qin Technology Co., Ltd (688182.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.46 - $0.59$0.53
Multi-Stage$1.22 - $1.37$1.29
Blended Fair Value$0.91
Current Price$28.45
Upside-96.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-36.68%0.00%0.060.070.080.000.600.580.010.040.000.00
YoY Growth---16.07%-12.50%5,894.21%-99.78%4.22%8,674.60%-82.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.22%0.40%0.48%0.01%3.10%2.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.8011.757.05
Cash Retained (M)61.6961.6961.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.80-11.75-7.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.8949.9454.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.62397.62397.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate7.34%7.34%7.34%
Growth Rate-23.84%-22.84%-21.84%
Fair Value$0.46$0.53$0.59
Upside / Downside-98.38%-98.14%-97.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93.9972.5255.9643.1833.3225.7126.48
Payout Ratio34.37%45.49%56.62%67.75%78.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.3032.9931.6929.2526.2823.1424.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.34%7.34%7.34%
Growth Rate-23.84%-22.84%-21.84%
Year 1 PV (M)30.3430.7431.14
Year 2 PV (M)26.7927.5028.22
Year 3 PV (M)22.7523.6524.59
Year 4 PV (M)18.7919.8020.84
Year 5 PV (M)15.2116.2417.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)371.15396.17422.51
Equity Value (M)485.04514.10544.61
Shares Outstanding (M)397.62397.62397.62
Fair Value$1.22$1.29$1.37
Upside / Downside-95.71%-95.46%-95.19%

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