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Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation (4188.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,613.56 - $3,702.76$2,354.59
Multi-Stage$2,142.55 - $2,351.20$2,244.90
Blended Fair Value$2,299.75
Current Price$851.30
Upside170.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.33%9.95%32.3431.3230.2927.2524.2140.3537.5527.6016.6514.57
YoY Growth--3.26%3.38%11.17%12.54%-39.98%7.45%36.04%65.81%14.29%16.27%
Dividend Yield--4.27%3.41%3.51%3.70%2.59%6.43%4.83%2.98%1.79%3.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114,231.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45,542.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)68,689.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22,846.2014,278.888,567.33
Cash Retained (M)68,689.0068,689.0068,689.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-22,846.20-14,278.88-8,567.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)45,842.8054,410.1360,121.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,407.891,407.891,407.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share32.5638.6542.70
LTM Dividend per Share32.3532.3532.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share32.5638.6542.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend64.9170.9975.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$1,613.56$2,354.59$3,702.76
Upside / Downside89.54%176.59%334.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114,231.00117,932.17121,753.25125,698.15129,770.86133,975.53137,994.79
Payout Ratio39.87%49.89%59.92%69.95%79.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45,542.0058,841.8672,955.7787,922.50103,782.51120,577.97127,645.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)54,791.0855,326.9955,862.89
Year 2 PV (M)63,256.7064,500.1765,755.74
Year 3 PV (M)70,985.6273,088.9775,233.46
Year 4 PV (M)78,022.1681,119.7584,308.66
Year 5 PV (M)84,408.3288,617.8192,993.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,665,011.972,797,917.632,936,073.64
Equity Value (M)3,016,475.863,160,571.313,310,228.00
Shares Outstanding (M)1,407.891,407.891,407.89
Fair Value$2,142.55$2,244.90$2,351.20
Upside / Downside151.68%163.70%176.19%

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