Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

XDC Industries (Shenzhen) Limited (300615.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.34 - $13.38$12.53
Multi-Stage$7.07 - $7.80$7.42
Blended Fair Value$9.98
Current Price$13.79
Upside-27.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.49%-9.44%0.100.100.060.050.050.040.040.210.140.22
YoY Growth---0.94%74.71%17.06%0.12%30.51%-7.97%-80.00%49.96%-36.38%-20.19%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.80%0.42%0.45%0.49%0.23%0.25%1.80%0.62%2.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.761.731.04
Cash Retained (M)2.132.132.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.76-1.73-1.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.640.401.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)191.71191.71191.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate-1.28%-1.28%-1.28%
Growth Rate-1.60%-0.60%0.40%
Fair Value$11.34$12.53$13.38
Upside / Downside-17.77%-9.14%-2.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.8113.7313.6413.5613.4813.4013.80
Payout Ratio84.60%85.68%86.76%87.84%88.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.6811.7611.8411.9111.9912.0612.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.28%-1.28%-1.28%
Growth Rate-1.60%-0.60%0.40%
Year 1 PV (M)11.7911.9112.03
Year 2 PV (M)11.9012.1512.39
Year 3 PV (M)12.0112.3812.76
Year 4 PV (M)12.1212.6213.14
Year 5 PV (M)12.2312.8613.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,294.381,361.501,431.38
Equity Value (M)1,354.431,423.421,495.22
Shares Outstanding (M)191.71191.71191.71
Fair Value$7.07$7.42$7.80
Upside / Downside-48.77%-46.16%-43.44%

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