Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $11,395.04 - $17,370.73 | $14,194.73 |
| Multi-Stage | $24,043.28 - $26,461.84 | $25,228.82 |
| Blended Fair Value | $19,711.78 | |
| Current Price | $61,700.00 | |
| Upside | -68.05% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -7.46% | 0.00% | 1.06 | 25.97 | 627.15 | 1,876.92 | 0.00 | 1.57 | 365.88 | 0.00 | 46.17 | 37.41 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -95.90% | -95.86% | -66.59% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -99.57% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 23.41% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.95% | 1.68% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 107,560.13 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 41,257.49 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 66,302.64 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 21,512.03 | 13,445.02 | 8,067.01 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 66,302.64 | 66,302.64 | 66,302.64 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -21,512.03 | -13,445.02 | -8,067.01 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 44,790.61 | 52,857.62 | 58,235.63 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 83.64 | 83.64 | 83.64 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 535.55 | 632.00 | 696.30 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 493.30 | 493.30 | 493.30 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 535.55 | 632.00 | 696.30 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1,028.85 | 1,125.30 | 1,189.61 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.85% | 6.85% | 6.85% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $11,395.04 | $14,194.73 | $17,370.73 |
| Upside / Downside | -81.53% | -76.99% | -71.85% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 107,560.13 | 106,484.53 | 105,419.68 | 104,365.49 | 103,321.83 | 102,288.61 | 105,357.27 |
| Payout Ratio | 38.36% | 48.69% | 59.01% | 69.34% | 79.67% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 41,257.49 | 51,843.15 | 62,212.97 | 72,370.20 | 82,318.07 | 92,059.75 | 97,455.48 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.85% | 6.85% | 6.85% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 48,030.20 | 48,520.31 | 49,010.41 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 53,398.25 | 54,493.57 | 55,600.01 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 57,547.84 | 59,327.55 | 61,143.57 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 60,643.96 | 63,157.36 | 65,748.10 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 62,832.62 | 66,104.46 | 69,511.20 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,728,413.19 | 1,818,415.68 | 1,912,129.03 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,010,866.07 | 2,110,018.94 | 2,213,142.33 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 83.64 | 83.64 | 83.64 |
| Fair Value | $24,043.28 | $25,228.82 | $26,461.84 |
| Upside / Downside | -61.03% | -59.11% | -57.11% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | 6.75% | $1.70 | 98.83% |
| COG | Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation | 6.71% | $1.49 | 52.20% |
| VZ | Verizon Communications Inc. | 6.66% | $2.70 | 57.56% |
| AC | Associated Capital Group, Inc. | 6.63% | $2.21 | 86.94% |
| VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | 6.62% | $3.90 | 78.61% |
| SSTK | Shutterstock, Inc. | 6.61% | $1.24 | 75.34% |
| EPD | Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | 6.60% | $2.12 | 80.06% |
| SXC | SunCoke Energy, Inc. | 6.57% | $0.48 | 63.44% |
| DIN | Dine Brands Global, Inc. | 6.56% | $2.18 | 90.98% |
| CBL | CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. | 6.54% | $2.42 | 61.13% |
| CRI | Carter's, Inc. | 6.47% | $2.15 | 85.39% |
| KYN | Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund, Inc. | 6.47% | $0.80 | 35.36% |
| SMMCX | Western Asset Managed Municipals Fund Class C | 6.45% | $0.96 | 71.65% |
| HESM | Hess Midstream LP | 6.39% | $2.21 | 87.39% |
| WRB-PF | W.R. Berkley Corporation 5.10% | 6.38% | $1.27 | 26.69% |
| RMT | Royce Micro-Cap Trust, Inc. | 6.37% | $0.67 | 32.29% |
| PNF | PIMCO New York Municipal Income Fund | 6.30% | $0.48 | 54.92% |
| ENR | Energizer Holdings, Inc. | 6.29% | $1.25 | 36.44% |
| UPS | United Parcel Service, Inc. | 6.29% | $6.35 | 98.06% |
| NWBI | Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | 6.27% | $0.75 | 93.81% |
| UIHC | United Insurance Holdings Corp. | 6.27% | $0.48 | 5.99% |
| TROW | T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | 6.24% | $6.53 | 69.41% |
| JRSH | Jerash Holdings (US), Inc. | 6.20% | $0.19 | 0.52% |
| MUA | BlackRock MuniAssets Fund, Inc. | 6.14% | $0.66 | 73.39% |
| VKI | Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II | 6.11% | $0.56 | 76.68% |
| GL-PD | Globe Life Inc. 4.25% Junior Su | 6.10% | $1.03 | 7.35% |
| CLNY | Colony Capital, Inc. | 6.07% | $0.52 | 13.43% |
| OMF | OneMain Holdings, Inc. | 6.07% | $4.20 | 71.06% |
| VICI | VICI Properties Inc. | 6.07% | $1.71 | 65.54% |
| IMMR | Immersion Corporation | 6.06% | $0.39 | 14.22% |
| KRNY | Kearny Financial Corp. | 5.99% | $0.44 | 93.99% |
| DMF | BNY Mellon Municipal Income, Inc. | 5.97% | $0.41 | 29.64% |
| UNB | Union Bankshares, Inc. | 5.96% | $1.41 | 57.02% |
| ARTMX | Artisan Mid Cap Fund Inv Shs | 5.91% | $1.95 | 91.77% |
| SABA | Saba Capital Income & Opportunities Fund II | 5.87% | $0.49 | 24.55% |
| BRD | Beard Energy Transition Acquisition Corp. | 5.86% | $0.63 | 95.51% |
| ETRN | Equitrans Midstream Corporation | 5.81% | $0.72 | 69.91% |
| EHLDV | Euroholdings Ltd | 5.80% | $0.28 | 5.02% |
| REPX | Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 5.80% | $1.54 | 38.01% |
| AII | American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. | 5.79% | $1.17 | 26.25% |
| VRTS | Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. | 5.75% | $9.35 | 47.12% |
| CXH | MFS Investment Grade Municipal Trust | 5.74% | $0.46 | 80.40% |
| GES | Guess', Inc. | 5.72% | $0.96 | 61.52% |
| KRC | Kilroy Realty Corporation | 5.71% | $2.17 | 79.80% |
| WRB-PE | W. R. Berkley Corporation 5.70% SB DB 2058 | 5.68% | $1.27 | 26.69% |
| LEO | BNY Mellon Strategic Municipals, Inc. | 5.66% | $0.36 | 37.22% |
| WLYB | John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | 5.64% | $1.76 | 92.90% |
| KMPB | Kemper Corporation 5.875% Fixed | 5.60% | $1.31 | 32.45% |
| CBTX | CBTX, Inc. | 5.56% | $1.63 | 54.55% |
| 0HST.L | Campbell Soup Company | 5.53% | $1.55 | 80.10% |