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CITIC Limited (0267.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$118.42 - $615.21$213.18
Multi-Stage$104.96 - $115.07$109.92
Blended Fair Value$161.55
Current Price$10.78
Upside1,398.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.60%-3.90%0.520.650.640.540.390.440.400.340.300.27
YoY Growth---19.76%2.45%18.70%39.74%-12.49%9.99%17.65%13.34%10.61%-65.30%
Dividend Yield--6.07%8.39%7.75%6.99%7.01%4.22%3.26%2.99%2.70%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107,374.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35,599.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)71,774.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21,474.9013,421.818,053.09
Cash Retained (M)71,774.8971,774.8971,774.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-21,474.90-13,421.81-8,053.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)50,299.9958,353.0863,721.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29,090.1329,090.1329,090.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.732.012.19
LTM Dividend per Share1.221.221.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.732.012.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.953.233.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Fair Value$118.42$213.18$615.21
Upside / Downside998.49%1,877.52%5,606.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107,374.50112,461.87117,790.29123,371.17129,216.46135,338.71139,398.87
Payout Ratio33.15%44.52%55.89%67.26%78.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35,599.6150,072.1865,836.2682,981.73101,604.10121,804.84128,943.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)46,643.9747,093.6147,543.24
Year 2 PV (M)57,129.8658,236.6059,353.95
Year 3 PV (M)67,077.9169,036.4971,032.84
Year 4 PV (M)76,508.0879,501.0682,581.01
Year 5 PV (M)85,439.6889,637.8993,999.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,720,385.292,854,055.742,992,929.80
Equity Value (M)3,053,184.793,197,561.393,347,440.37
Shares Outstanding (M)29,090.1329,090.1329,090.13
Fair Value$104.96$109.92$115.07
Upside / Downside873.62%919.66%967.45%

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