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Keck Seng Investments (Hong Kong) Limited (0184.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.00 - $12.98$10.94
Multi-Stage$24.87 - $27.47$26.14
Blended Fair Value$18.54
Current Price$2.26
Upside720.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.46%-3.20%0.130.080.040.000.050.160.160.150.150.15
YoY Growth--62.50%100.00%0.00%-100.00%-70.97%-3.13%6.67%0.00%0.00%-16.67%
Dividend Yield--6.44%4.10%1.74%0.00%1.53%3.41%3.25%2.14%2.68%2.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)441.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)335.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)88.2555.1633.09
Cash Retained (M)335.80335.80335.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-88.25-55.16-33.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)247.55280.64302.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)340.20340.20340.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.820.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.820.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.131.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate-4.73%-3.73%-2.73%
Fair Value$9.00$10.94$12.98
Upside / Downside298.10%384.04%474.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)441.27424.80408.94393.68378.99364.84375.79
Payout Ratio23.90%37.12%50.34%63.56%76.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.46157.68205.86250.22290.99328.36347.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate-4.73%-3.73%-2.73%
Year 1 PV (M)146.86148.40149.94
Year 2 PV (M)178.57182.34186.14
Year 3 PV (M)202.15208.58215.15
Year 4 PV (M)218.94228.28237.91
Year 5 PV (M)230.10242.43255.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,482.627,883.668,301.72
Equity Value (M)8,459.238,893.699,346.16
Shares Outstanding (M)340.20340.20340.20
Fair Value$24.87$26.14$27.47
Upside / Downside1,000.24%1,056.75%1,115.60%

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