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Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited (0016.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$124.32 - $194.18$156.50
Multi-Stage$299.37 - $329.52$314.15
Blended Fair Value$235.33
Current Price$90.05
Upside161.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.004.614.914.914.914.914.664.163.863.42
YoY Growth---100.00%-6.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.34%11.92%7.75%13.12%5.05%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.83%4.97%5.29%4.24%4.96%3.52%3.52%3.37%3.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37,895.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,589.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)16,306.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,579.004,736.882,842.13
Cash Retained (M)16,306.0016,306.0016,306.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,579.00-4,736.88-2,842.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,727.0011,569.1313,463.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,922.782,922.782,922.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.993.964.61
LTM Dividend per Share7.397.397.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.993.964.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3711.3411.99
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$124.32$156.50$194.18
Upside / Downside38.06%73.80%115.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37,895.0037,516.0537,140.8936,769.4836,401.7936,037.7737,118.90
Payout Ratio56.97%63.58%70.18%76.79%83.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,589.0023,851.3826,066.3528,234.6330,356.9532,433.9934,334.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)22,237.0322,463.9422,690.85
Year 2 PV (M)22,657.2323,121.9823,591.45
Year 3 PV (M)22,880.8423,588.4524,310.49
Year 4 PV (M)22,935.6623,886.2424,866.06
Year 5 PV (M)22,846.3524,036.0125,274.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)761,432.85801,082.42842,366.78
Equity Value (M)874,989.96918,179.04963,100.35
Shares Outstanding (M)2,922.782,922.782,922.78
Fair Value$299.37$314.15$329.52
Upside / Downside232.45%248.86%265.92%

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