Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shengda Resources Co.,Ltd. (000603.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.20 - $13.29$10.48
Multi-Stage$11.51 - $12.63$12.06
Blended Fair Value$11.27
Current Price$26.44
Upside-57.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.86%58.54%0.180.090.100.130.190.160.080.510.020.00
YoY Growth--110.95%-12.57%-24.61%-30.98%19.96%107.11%-85.12%3,295.61%469.71%46.14%
Dividend Yield--1.16%0.66%0.58%0.99%1.46%1.41%0.68%4.51%0.10%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)513.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)390.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102.6964.1838.51
Cash Retained (M)390.34390.34390.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-102.69-64.18-38.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)287.64326.15351.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)690.16690.16690.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.470.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.470.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Fair Value$8.20$10.48$13.29
Upside / Downside-69.00%-60.35%-49.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)513.47523.00532.71542.60552.67562.92579.81
Payout Ratio23.98%37.18%50.39%63.59%76.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.13194.48268.42345.05424.43506.63536.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Year 1 PV (M)178.00179.77181.53
Year 2 PV (M)224.88229.36233.89
Year 3 PV (M)264.59272.54280.65
Year 4 PV (M)297.89309.89322.24
Year 5 PV (M)325.47341.93359.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,650.626,986.937,336.71
Equity Value (M)7,941.468,320.428,714.07
Shares Outstanding (M)690.16690.16690.16
Fair Value$11.51$12.06$12.63
Upside / Downside-56.48%-54.40%-52.25%

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