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John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund (PDT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.02 - $29.84$25.36
Multi-Stage$37.10 - $40.67$38.85
Blended Fair Value$32.11
Current Price$12.64
Upside154.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.08%-2.86%0.991.091.131.151.161.161.631.421.081.09
YoY Growth---9.44%-2.89%-2.10%-0.91%0.26%-29.01%14.57%31.19%-0.12%-17.91%
Dividend Yield--7.72%11.42%8.05%6.73%9.25%6.54%10.42%8.39%7.25%7.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)157.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)98.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.5119.7011.82
Cash Retained (M)58.8358.8358.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.51-19.70-11.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.3239.1447.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.1949.1949.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.800.96
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.800.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.562.802.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.76%-1.76%-0.76%
Fair Value$21.02$25.36$29.84
Upside / Downside66.29%100.67%136.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)157.57154.80152.07149.40146.77144.19148.52
Payout Ratio62.66%68.13%73.60%79.06%84.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)98.73105.46111.92118.12124.07129.77137.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.76%-1.76%-0.76%
Year 1 PV (M)95.6896.6797.65
Year 2 PV (M)92.1394.0395.96
Year 3 PV (M)88.2290.9793.77
Year 4 PV (M)84.0787.5891.20
Year 5 PV (M)79.7883.9688.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,384.921,457.611,533.32
Equity Value (M)1,824.791,910.822,000.22
Shares Outstanding (M)49.1949.1949.19
Fair Value$37.10$38.85$40.67
Upside / Downside193.52%207.35%221.73%

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